A groundbreaking investigation conducted by the University of Surrey has unveiled concerning consequences of Brexit on the National Health Service (NHS). The findings indicate that, over a three-year period following the EU referendum, an estimated 1,485 additional deaths occurred annually due to the exodus of EU nurses from the UK. This research, published in a recent IZA Discussion Paper, delves into administrative patient-level data from 131 NHS hospitals across England to assess these effects.

Key insights from the study reveal significant fluctuations in nurse demographics post-referendum. Hospitals with a higher pre-referendum proportion of EU nurses experienced greater negative impacts as a result of reduced labor supply. For instance, institutions facing average exposure to Brexit-related disruptions witnessed an alarming rise of 34 extra fatalities per hospital over the three years examined. Additionally, the research highlights a notable shift in hiring trends, with fewer EU nurses being recruited and a corresponding increase in non-EU overseas nurses, often possessing less experience or skill levels due to lower salaries offered.

The implications of this workforce transformation are profound, contributing directly to increased mortality rates and unplanned emergency readmissions. By eliminating alternative explanations such as changes in patient demographics or hospital productivity, the authors pinpoint the altered composition of nursing staff as the primary driver behind deteriorating care quality. Professor Giuseppe Moscelli emphasizes the urgent need for policy adjustments, advocating not only for continued reliance on skilled migrant nurses but also for fostering domestic healthcare professional development. Such measures aim to safeguard future standards of care while ensuring sustainable resource allocation within the NHS framework.