Amid renewed concerns over US tariffs, Counterpoint Research has adjusted its global smartphone shipment growth forecast for 2025. The new projection anticipates a modest 1.9% year-over-year increase, down from the earlier estimate of 4.2%. This revision reflects ongoing uncertainties in the global trade landscape, with particular emphasis on cost pass-throughs leading to price hikes. Despite these challenges, most regions are expected to experience growth, barring North America and China. Key players like Apple and Samsung remain under scrutiny due to their significant exposure to the US market, while Huawei shows signs of recovery.

In light of shifting tariff dynamics, industry experts are closely monitoring how major manufacturers will respond. Liz Lee, Associate Director at Counterpoint Research, highlighted that demand softness extends beyond North America into Europe and parts of Asia. However, she remains optimistic about Apple's performance, attributing it to the anticipated success of the iPhone 16 series early in 2025. Additionally, emerging markets such as India, Southeast Asia, and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries continue to present long-term opportunities for premium device sales.

Ethan Qi, another Associate Director, pointed out that Huawei is poised to capitalize on easing constraints in component sourcing. This development could enable the company to regain significant market share domestically, particularly in mid-to-lower-tier segments. Looking ahead, although global dominance may still be some years away, enhanced supply chain resilience positions Huawei favorably for international expansion in the medium term.

The research firm’s projections assume relative stability in tariff policies through 2025. Nevertheless, escalating tensions and unpredictability in trade relations could profoundly influence pricing strategies, supply chain logistics, and consumer behavior across the smartphone sector.

As the industry navigates these complexities, stakeholders must adapt swiftly to changing market conditions. While uncertainties persist, there are clear indications of resilience among leading brands and promising prospects in key geographic markets. These factors underscore the importance of strategic planning and innovation in sustaining growth amidst turbulent economic times.