Amidst global economic uncertainties, Hong Kong's growth trajectory is expected to experience a slowdown. The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has forecasted an economic expansion of 1.9% for the city in 2025. This projection comes as external factors such as trade tensions and internal structural issues pose significant challenges. Recent trends indicate that domestic consumption remains weak, and real estate investment continues to be sluggish, which have contributed to a deceleration in growth to 2.5% in 2024. Despite a minor resurgence in the first quarter of 2025 due to increased trade activities and tourism, AMRO anticipates only modest progress throughout the remainder of the year and into 2026.

Various risks could further impact Hong Kong's economic outlook. Key concerns include heightened protectionism among major economies, a potentially slower recovery in mainland China, and prolonged elevated interest rates in the United States. These elements may tighten financial conditions and suppress local demand. Although government interventions have shown some success in stabilizing the property market, ongoing challenges persist in influencing household and business confidence. Additionally, long-term demographic shifts and fragmentation within the global economy present formidable hurdles for the city. To mitigate these issues, AMRO advocates for a more dynamic policy approach, emphasizing fiscal prudence while providing targeted support to vulnerable sectors.

A proactive strategy can pave the way for sustained resilience and prosperity. AMRO suggests enhancing credit accessibility for high-potential small and medium-sized enterprises, preparing for diverse trade disruption scenarios, and reassessing the tax system to broaden revenue streams. Addressing labor shortages by attracting skilled professionals and investing in emerging sectors like fintech and sustainable finance are also crucial steps. Furthermore, strengthening economic ties with the Greater Bay Area and diversifying trade relationships can reinforce Hong Kong's position on the global stage. By implementing these recommendations, Hong Kong can navigate current difficulties and secure its future growth potential through innovation and collaboration.