Wheat futures experienced a slight decline overnight, influenced by favorable weather conditions in the Black Sea region. However, concerns about less favorable weather in the U.S. are keeping prices from plummeting too far. Additionally, the USDA has forecasted an increase in winter wheat acreage for the upcoming marketing year, reversing a long-term trend of declining wheat cultivation. Meanwhile, a cold front is expected to hit the southern Plains, potentially affecting hard red winter wheat crops. This article explores these developments in detail, highlighting the interplay between global weather patterns and agricultural markets.

In recent trading, wheat futures faced a minor setback due to improved weather forecasts in key growing regions around the Black Sea. According to agricultural meteorologist Don Keeney from Maxar, precipitation in the form of a wintry mix has fallen in areas like the north Caucasus and western Volga Valley, both crucial for wheat production. Snowfall is anticipated in parts of Belarus, northern Ukraine, and central regions, while rain is likely in the north Caucasus. These conditions should help build snow cover in northern Russia, reducing the risk of winterkill on crops. However, the situation is different in the U.S., where unfavorable weather conditions may pose challenges. Snowfall in the southern Plains will offer some protection to overwintering plants, but certain areas in west-central Kansas and Nebraska could still experience winterkill. This condition, caused by extremely low temperatures on uncovered wheat, might affect crops in the northwestern Midwest, where soft-red winter varieties are prevalent.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected a rise in winter wheat acreage for the 2025-2026 marketing year, signaling a shift from recent trends. The planted area is expected to increase by 2% to 34.1 million acres, reversing a longer-term decline that saw planted area drop to its lowest point since 1909 during the 2020-2021 season. Despite a rebound in the 2023-2024 season, lower prices have led to a decline this year. The USDA's forecast indicates that acreage for hard red winter, soft red winter, and white winter varieties will all see increases next season. Harvested area has also shown signs of recovery, rising from a record low of 22.8 million acres in 2020-2021 to 26.1 million acres in the current season. This trend suggests a renewed interest in winter wheat cultivation among farmers.

A cold front is expected to sweep through the southern Plains this weekend, impacting hard red winter wheat crops currently overwintering in the region. The National Weather Service (NWS) predicts temperatures as low as 20 degrees Fahrenheit in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, with a chance of precipitation over the weekend. While there is some uncertainty regarding the intensity of the cold air mass, some locations may experience a dramatic temperature drop of up to 40 degrees within 24 hours. The frigid weather will extend into central and eastern Kansas and may last into early next week. Wind chills in the region are expected to plummet to minus-15 degrees Fahrenheit during the nights from Saturday through Tuesday, posing potential risks to the crops.

While favorable weather in the Black Sea region has contributed to the slight decline in wheat futures, concerns about winterkill in the U.S. and the impact of a cold front in the southern Plains add complexity to the market dynamics. The USDA's forecast of increased winter wheat acreage for the upcoming marketing year signals a positive outlook for the sector, despite the challenges posed by fluctuating weather patterns. As farmers prepare for the changing conditions, the global wheat market remains closely tied to environmental factors and planting trends.