In the opening month of 2025, Hong Kong experienced a mixed performance in its external merchandise trade. The Census and Statistics Department reported a decline in both exports and imports year-on-year, with drops of 2.0% and 1.7%, respectively. However, certain markets exhibited remarkable growth, such as Vietnam with a surge in exports by 65.9%. Analysts recommend examining combined January and February data for more accurate insights due to Lunar New Year holiday effects.

Trade Trends Amidst Economic Fluctuations

During the first quarter's onset, Hong Kong's trade landscape revealed notable shifts. For the three months ending January 2025, total exports slightly decreased by 0.1%, while imports fell by 0.8% compared to the same period last year. Seasonally adjusted figures showed some recovery, with exports rising by 2.7% and imports by 0.3% from the previous quarter. Notably, India witnessed the steepest export decline at 22.1%, whereas mainland China and Taiwan also saw reductions. Conversely, exports to the U.S. increased significantly by 12.2%, and Vietnam's growth was extraordinary at 65.9%. On the import side, Korea and mainland China faced declines, but Malaysia, Taiwan, and Singapore registered substantial increases.

Prices across all trades generally rose, with both export and import prices increasing by 2.0% annually. Export prices to Vietnam and Taiwan climbed by 4.0%, contrasting with a drop in prices to India. Import prices from key suppliers like Korea and Malaysia also saw gains.

Implications for Global Markets

From a journalistic perspective, this report highlights the complexity of global trade dynamics. While some regions struggled, others thrived, showcasing the resilience and adaptability of international commerce. The significant increase in exports to Vietnam and the U.S. suggests potential new opportunities or strategic shifts in market focus for Hong Kong exporters. Furthermore, the stability of the terms of trade index indicates that despite volume fluctuations, pricing remained balanced, which could be a positive sign for future trade relations.