The longstanding trade relationship between Canada and the United States is undergoing unprecedented strain due to newly imposed tariffs. In early 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump introduced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada, citing undocumented migrants and the fentanyl crisis as justifications. This decision sparked retaliatory measures from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who levied tariffs worth $30 billion on U.S. goods, including coffee. These developments have sent shockwaves through the North American coffee industry, forcing roasters and importers to reconsider their sourcing strategies while grappling with rising costs.

In February of 2025, tensions escalated when the U.S. implemented sweeping tariffs on global imports, targeting countries such as China, Mexico, and Canada. Although some exemptions were granted under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), these measures strained relations between neighboring nations. For instance, Canadian roasters reliant on U.S.-based suppliers now face additional fees and logistical challenges. To mitigate financial pressures, many businesses are shifting toward domestic importers or exploring direct-trade relationships with international producers.

Canadian roasters, already burdened by record-high arabica prices and operational expenses, find themselves at a crossroads. According to Josef Mott, head of coffee at The Ministry of Coffee in Ottawa, uncertainty surrounding tariffs has become a significant concern. "We recently purchased a large shipment just before the announcement," he explains. "Not knowing whether we'd incur an extra 25% cost added immense stress." Such unpredictability has prompted smaller operations to prioritize local suppliers over established U.S. partners.

Shipping logistics further complicate matters. With primary ports located in British Columbia, transporting coffee across vast distances proves costly for eastern Canadian businesses. As Josef notes, "Our previous supplier was much closer geographically, making it easier to source high-quality beans. Now, we must adapt to new realities."

Despite these hurdles, opportunities abound within the evolving trade landscape. Established U.S. companies like Royal Coffee and Café Imports maintain strong footholds in Canada, potentially expanding their reach amid shifting preferences. Meanwhile, emerging Canadian importers seek to carve out niches in specialty markets, offering unique micro-lots that cater to discerning customers.

While the future remains uncertain, one thing is clear: the North American coffee industry must navigate uncharted waters. If coffee receives exemption from tariffs, normalcy may return; however, until then, adaptation will remain key. Businesses across the continent are reevaluating partnerships and supply chains, ensuring resilience in an increasingly volatile market.