Today, the USDA presented the highly anticipated December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. This report holds significant importance as it provides crucial insights into the global and U.S. agricultural markets. Let's delve into the details and explore the key findings.

Unveiling the Insights of USDA's December WASDE Report

2024/2025 U.S. Ending Stocks

In the December report, the USDA pegged 2024/2025 U.S. corn ending stocks lower compared to the previous month and also lower than the average trade expectation. This indicates a potential tightening in the corn market. On the other hand, for soybeans, the USDA held ending stocks steady, while the average trade expectation was for a reduction. Wheat ending stocks were reduced more than the average trade expectation, suggesting a shift in the wheat market dynamics.The specific figures for 2024/2025 U.S. Ending Stocks Estimates (Bushels) are as follows:December: Corn - 1.738 billion, Soybeans - 470 million, Wheat - 795 million.November: Corn - 1.906 billion, Soybeans - 469 million, Wheat - 814 million.

2024/2025 Global Ending Stocks

Regarding global ending stocks, 2024/2025 global corn ending stocks were pegged lower month-over-month and also lower than the average trade expectation. However, global soybean and wheat ending stocks were pegged higher month-over-month. It's interesting to note that soybeans were not pegged as high as expected, while wheat was pegged higher than the average trade expectation.The 2024/2025 Global Ending Stocks Estimates (Million Metric Tons) are as follows:December: Corn - 296.4, Soybeans - 131.9, Wheat - 257.9.November: Corn - 303.6, Soybeans - 132.4, Wheat - 257.7.

2024/2025 U.S. Crop Production

The USDA made no changes month-over-month to U.S. corn and soybean yield and total production estimates for the 2024/2025 season. This was not a surprise as it was the last WASDE report of the year. The specific details for 2024/2025 Corn and Soybeans are as follows:For Corn: Yield - 183.1 bushels per acre, Total Production - 15.143 billion bushels.For Soybeans: Yield - 51.7 bushels per acre, Total Production - 4.461 billion bushels.

More From USDA

Corn: "This month’s 2024/2025 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for ethanol, larger exports, and lower ending stocks," said USDA in the report. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion, based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of November. These data imply that corn used for ethanol during the September to November quarter was the highest since 2017. Corn exports are raised by 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion, reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion.Soybeans: "Soybean supply and use projections are unchanged," said USDA in the report concerning the 2024/2025 soybean projections.Wheat: "This month’s 2024/2025 U.S. wheat outlook is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, increased exports, and lower ending stocks," said USDA in the report. Imports are raised by 5 million bushels to 125 million on a strong pace for Hard Red Spring [wheat]. Exports are raised by 25 million bushels to 850 million. White wheat exports are increased by 15 million bushels to 210 million, on stronger-than-expected sales and shipments to East Asian markets. Exports for Soft Red Winter [wheat] and Hard Red Spring [wheat] are both raised by 5 million bushels. Projected wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million, still up 14% from last year.

Trade Reaction

Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor at Total Farm Marketing, stated, "Today’s USDA report had elements of support for U.S. corn and wheat ending stocks, as the numbers came in lower than expectations…. The market was anticipating supportive news for corn, and had been trading that news earlier in the week with the recent rally. The question now is if the report news is friendly enough to justify additional technical buying as major overhead resistance is approaching on the March corn futures chart, near the $4.50 area. $4.50 is a brick wall on the charts."Jeremy McCann, account manager at Farmer’s Keeper, said, "We’re much closer to a 1.7 billion bushel [corn] carryout which makes sense as the cash market has been looking at basis improvements all across the country over the past month as well. World ending stocks also noted a much lower than expected carryout for corn. Once again good news for the corn market…. Overall this report confirms what we already knew. Corn certainly has room to push higher."Note: Trade expectations are sourced from Bloomberg.