The 97th Academy Awards are set to take place this Sunday, and the entertainment world is buzzing with anticipation. Among the nine films nominated for Best Picture, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have placed their bets on Sean Baker's "Anora" as the frontrunner. These platforms, which allow users to trade contracts based on expected outcomes, have shown remarkable accuracy in predicting significant events, including Donald Trump's recent presidential victory. The film industry will gather at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, with Conan O'Brien hosting the prestigious ceremony.

Prediction Markets Show Confidence in "Anora"

Prediction markets have emerged as a powerful tool for forecasting outcomes of various events. For the upcoming Oscars, these platforms are indicating that "Anora," starring Mikey Madison, stands a strong chance of winning Best Picture. Both Polymarket and Kalshi show a high probability of "Anora" taking home the coveted award, with similar betting patterns reflecting user confidence.

These platforms operate by allowing individuals to purchase and sell contracts based on predicted results. Contracts for "Anora" winning Best Picture are priced at 65 cents for a "Yes" outcome on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while "No" contracts cost 37 cents on Kalshi and 36 cents on Polymarket. This pricing reflects the market's assessment of the film's chances. Supporters argue that prediction markets can be more accurate than traditional polls due to their ability to quickly adapt to new information and the direct investment of users in the outcome. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev has even hailed prediction markets as "the future."

"Anora" Gains Momentum Since Cannes Premiere

Since its premiere at the 77th Cannes Film Festival in 2024, "Anora" has garnered significant acclaim and several awards. Directed by Sean Baker, the film has been a standout in the industry, earning accolades for its cast and narrative. Mikey Madison's performance has been particularly praised, leading to her winning a BAFTA award for Best Leading Actress. The film's success has positioned it as a strong contender for the Oscars.

Other notable nominees for Best Picture include "The Substance," "Dune: Part Two," "Wicked," and "Emilia Pérez." However, prediction markets suggest that "Anora" is ahead, with political thrillers "Conclave" and "The Brutalist" trailing behind. Despite this, representatives from FilmNation Entertainment, the production company behind "Anora," have not commented on the predictions. As Hollywood prepares for the grand event, all eyes are on whether "Anora" will indeed clinch the top prize at the 97th Academy Awards.