The year 2025 looms with uncertainties, particularly in the realms of economics and public health. This article explores the potential economic slowdown and its impact on healthcare, as well as the challenges facing public health initiatives. Despite the unpredictability of forecasting, analyzing past predictions can offer valuable insights into future trends.

Economic Forecast: Sluggish Growth and Rising Unemployment

The economic landscape for 2025 is expected to be marked by reduced growth and modestly rising unemployment. Tariffs and global trade tensions are anticipated to push inflation upwards, reaching nearly 4% by year's end. Manufacturing industries reliant on imported materials may stall, leading to increased job losses. Although a technical recession might be avoided, economic growth could slow down significantly to about 1% by the fourth quarter.

Inflationary pressures will likely intensify due to higher nominal wages resulting from the deportation of undocumented workers. Companies may pass these increased labor costs onto consumers, exacerbating inflation. Additionally, austerity measures and high interest rates could further strain the economy. The average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to surpass 7%, adding to financial uncertainty both domestically and internationally. These factors collectively create an environment of economic instability and caution.

Healthcare Sector: Policy Shifts and Pricing Trends

The healthcare sector faces significant changes under new political leadership. Potential policy shifts could lead to enhanced vaccine hesitancy, slower drug development for infectious diseases, and renewed efforts to reference international prices for Medicare prescription drugs. These changes may disrupt existing healthcare frameworks and affect patient access to treatments.

Drug pricing remains a critical issue. Despite a robust pipeline of novel drug approvals, launch prices continue their upward trajectory. In 2023, the median annual list price for newly approved drugs reached $300,000, up from $222,000 the previous year. While this trend may not accelerate as sharply in 2025, it is expected to persist. Political fracturing over pharmaceutical pricing reforms suggests that meaningful changes might be delayed, impacting patient affordability and access to medications.