"The Uncertain Future of Agricultural Labor and the Economy"

Immigrant Workers in Farming

If President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his deportation pledge, it could have a profound impact on the economies of states where farming and food-related industries are crucial. Immigrants make up about two-thirds of the nation's crop farmworkers, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Roughly 2 in 5 of these workers are not legally authorized to work in the United States. Agricultural industries such as meatpacking, dairy farms, and poultry and livestock farms heavily rely on immigrant labor.

Take Bruce Lampman, for example. He owns Lampman Dairy Farm in Bruneau, Idaho. His farm, which has been in the family for three decades, has 350 cows producing around 26,000 pounds of milk a day. Lampman said, "We have five to six employees that do the work that nobody else will do. We wouldn't survive without them." His workers are now worried about what the future holds.

Challenges in Hiring Farm Laborers

Employers face difficulties in hiring enough farm laborers due to low wages for arduous work. In addition to hiring immigrant laborers who are in the country illegally, agricultural employers rely on the federal H-2A visa program. These visas are usually for seasonal work, often lasting about six to 10 months, but can be extended for up to three years.

Employers must pay H-2A workers a state-specific minimum wage and provide no-cost transportation and housing. Despite these requirements, the number of H-2A positions has surged from just over 48,000 in 2005 to more than 378,000 in 2023, indicating a shortage of U.S.-born laborers willing to do the work.

Support for the H-2A Program

Immigration advocates want a pathway for H-2A workers to obtain permanent legal status, and agricultural trade organizations are pushing for an expansion of the H-2A program to include year-round operations. The National Milk Producers Federation states that it "strongly supports efforts to pass agriculture labor reform that provides permanent legal status to current workers and their families and gives dairy farmers access to a workable guestworker program." Immigrants make up 51% of labor at dairy farms across states, and farms that employ immigrants produce nearly 80% of the nation's milk supply.

Adam Croissant, the former vice president of research and development at yogurt company Chobani, said, "The dairy industry as a whole understands that without immigrant labor, the dairy industry doesn't exist. It's as simple as that."

Changes Ahead and Potential Consequences

Major changes to the H-2A visa program are unlikely to occur before deportations begin. Trump has repeated his promise to start deporting some immigrants almost immediately, starting with convicted criminals and then moving on to others. Some farmers still hope that his actions won't match his rhetoric, but "hoping isn't a great business plan," said Rick Naerebout, CEO of the Idaho Dairymen's Association.

If the deportations do happen, agricultural workers will disappear faster than they can be replaced. Jeffrey Dorfman, a professor of agricultural economics at North Carolina State University, argued that even the fear of deportation will have an impact on the workforce. "When farmworkers hear about ICE raids on a nearby farm, lots of them disappear. Even the legal ones often disappear for a few days. So, if everybody just gets scared and self-deports, just goes back home, I think that would be the worst disruption," said Dorfman. And if the administration revokes temporary protected status, even more jobs would need to be filled.

Antonio De Loera-Brust, communications director for the farmworker labor union United Farm Workers, said the nation should focus on protecting workers regardless of their legal status. "They deserve a lot better than just not getting deported. They deserve better wages, they deserve labor rights, they deserve citizenship," he said.