Corn production in South America's two major agricultural countries, Brazil and Argentina, is set to follow distinct trajectories during the 2024–2025 crop season. Brazil is expected to increase production while cutting exports, while Argentina is projected to see a significant drop in corn acreage due to disease concerns. This article delves into the latest forecasts and examines the factors influencing these trends.

Uncover the Future of South American Corn Production

Brazil: Steady Acreage, Changing Exports

The Brazilian food agency, Conab, has raised its estimate for the 2024–2025 corn crop to 4,717 million bushels, a 3.6% increase from last year. Corn acreage for Brazil's first, second, and third crops is expected to remain stable at 52 million acres. Field activities for the first corn crop are underway, with 52% of the area already planted by November 17, ahead of the same period last year. This season, farmers are allocating 9.3 million acres to the first crop, with production projected at nearly 897 million bushels, a slight decrease.The second corn crop acreage is expected to stay at 41 million acres, with production projected to reach 3,725 million bushels, a 5% increase over the previous harvest. However, Brazil has significantly reduced its corn exports in 2024. Between January and October, exports were 27% lower than last year, and the National Association of Cereal Exporters projects total exports of approximately 1,614 million bushels for 2024. The recovery of supply in other major producing countries and the decline in Chinese demand have contributed to this slowdown.

Argentina: Disease-Driven Acreage Drop

Argentina's corn planted area is projected to decrease by 25% in the 2024–2025 crop season, equivalent to 6 million acres. The primary factor behind this decline is the devastating impact of corn stunt disease during the previous season. Many farmers lost their entire corn crop due to the bacterium spread by the leafhopper pest. This has made farmers cautious this season, and the loss in corn area will be covered by soybeans, which require lower investment.Argentinian farmers began planting their 2024–2025 first corn crop in September, facing concerns over dry conditions due to the La Niña phenomenon. However, recent rains have allowed them to make progress. By November 14, 39% of the expected crop had been planted, six percentage points ahead of last year. Argentina's corn exports for the 2024–2025 marketing year are projected to reach 1,417 million bushels, a 9% increase compared to the previous year, marking the highest export total since 2020–2021.

Final Considerations

Recent rainfall has improved growing conditions across South America, but the onset of La Niña introduces uncertainty. In Brazil, total corn acreage is expected to remain stable, with production projected to increase. In Argentina, corn acreage is forecasted to drop due to disease challenges. Despite this, Argentina is reasserting its position in the global corn market and may overtake Brazil as the world's second-largest exporter in the current marketing year.Corn Acreage in South America: Stable in Brazil, Sharp Decline in Argentina was originally published by Farmdoc.